Unreasonable hypotheticals beginning to feel very real

“I would like to make a deal, you know, the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.”

— U.S. President Donald Trump, talking of making Greenland part of the United States

“It’s clear that the president has this wish of conquering over Greenland.”

— Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen

What a surreal moment in history.

The world is watching in disbelief as a wayward American president talks openly of annexing Greenland, an autonomous territory, away from Denmark. While we collectively hold our breath for the other shoe to drop, it’s an open question whether we should be preparing ourselves for next steps if and when Trump makes good on his threat against Canada’s NATO ally.

First and foremost, there’s no good reason for the U.S. to foment such an international crisis. Trump’s stated excuse that unless the United States takes Greenland away from Denmark, Russia or China will rush in, “and we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbour,” is neither defensible nor based in reality.

While China is attempting to increase its business interests in the region, particularly in rare-earth deposits, Nordic diplomats say there are no Chinese or Russian destroyers and submarines lined up along Greenland’s coast, ready to move in.

Denmark’s parliament even approved legislation last June that formalized and improved upon a previous agreement with the U.S. to allow American troops and military access to three Danish air bases — part of a new bilateral defence co-operation agreement.

Trump’s would-be annexation is a not-so-subtle effort at destroying the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a naked grab for Greenland’s resources by a power-mad authoritarian or an over-the-top red herring instigated by Trump to distract a domestic audience — perhaps all three.

Trying to reason with an unreasonable administration certainly hasn’t helped. Reuters reported Wednesday that a meeting between Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, his Greenland counterpart Vivian Motzfeldt, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did little to curb Trump’s ambitions in the region.

Yet even before this meeting took place, Politico reported early Wednesday that Denmark and allied NATO countries will increase their military presence in Greenland as part of “expanded exercises,” an interesting decision given the rising tensions between Denmark and the U.S.

The Danish defence ministry said Denmark would deploy additional aircraft, naval assets and troops around Greenland immediately, with the effort including “receiving allied forces, operating fighter jets and carrying out maritime security tasks.” Sweden is sending military personnel as part of the multinational allied group — at Copenhagen’s request.

A European diplomat told Politico yesterday that troops from the Netherlands, Canada and Germany were also taking part. The diplomat and another official with first-hand knowledge said France was also involved. Trump’s dangerous rhetoric is bringing the other NATO allies together, but at a huge cost to international stability.

Of course, it’s an open debate whether Trump is foolish enough — or dangerous enough — to follow through on his absurd Greenland fetish. Currently users of the unregulated blockchain-based prediction market, Polymarket, seem to think there’s a 12 per cent chance that the U.S. will actually invade Greenland in 2026, if he can’t find some way to purchase it.

Interestingly, NBC News reported that the territory could be worth up to US$700 billion if Denmark were open to selling it. Thus far, both Denmark and Greenland residents seem quite uninterested in that arrangement.

Canadian ex-military personnel and international affairs experts are equally skeptical that the U.S. would turn its sights on invading Canada.

“I think that even in the wildest dreams that we’re having about this horrible kleptocracy that’s developing in the United States, they would go to any lengths to avoid that scenario,” former chief of the defence staff (Ret’d) Gen. Tom Lawson told CTV News.

But it must be said that our relationship with the United States would likely turn on a dime should Greenland come under attack from U.S. forces.

Sure, a majority of us Canadians may scoff at the idea. Only a year ago it seemed implausible. Nevertheless, Trump has given us ample reason to contemplate formerly unreasonable hypotheticals.