Manitobans aren’t sure who to trust

Opinion

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This article was published 15/12/2022 (643 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

“We will come to victory in 2023.”

— Premier Heather Stefanson, as quoted by the Winnipeg Free Press on Wednesday.

“Kirkfield Park was a PC stronghold. But not anymore.”

— Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew in a fundraising email sent out Wednesday evening.

 

If you listen to Premier Heather Stefanson, Progressive Conservative candidate Kevin Klein’s victory in the Kirkfield Park byelection is a preview of a general election victory for her party in 2023.

If you were to listen to her chief political rival, Manitoba NDP Leader Wab Kinew, that same byelection contested by his party’s candidate, Logan Oxenham, is a sign that the NDP is showing the strength of its political movement and could carry on to victory in 2023.

While both touted positives in the wake of Klein’s narrow 160-vote victory — 37 per cent of votes cast — the result could point to another scenario: Manitoba voters aren’t sure who to trust to lead the government.

The PCs’ second term has been a rough ride for the government first elected in 2016.

That’s evidenced by polling numbers that started to plunge when Brian Pallister was leading Manitoba’s COVID-19 response as premier and continued to stay low after Heather Stefanson took charge following a gaffe-filled summer of 2021.

Stefanson’s approval ratings have been the lowest among Canada’s premiers for months, and the NDP seem to be leading polls taken in Winnipeg, though it remains to be seen how much support they have outside of the capital.

For all the effort the Tories have put into talking about the mess the NDP left in health care before they took over, it has seemed like they have no real cohesive plan to improve things.

And yet, Kirkfield Park was the second consecutive byelection victory this year after former Winnipeg Blue Bomber Obby Khan prevailed in Pallister’s old constituency for a government that looks decidedly unpopular on paper.

The NDP weren’t even able to come in second in Fort Whyte, placing a distant third behind the Manitoba Liberals’ candidate, Willard Reaves, another former Blue Bomber.

It is true that the PCs had star candidates in both races in the form of a former pro football player in Khan and a recent Winnipeg mayoral candidate in Klein, but there are no prizes for runners-up under our first-past-the-post political system.

Despite health care being one of the government’s greatest weaknesses and the NDP trying to exploit that as a weakness, it hasn’t led to any tangible results yet.

We have a provincial government Manitobans seem to have little love for, an opposition still trying to breakthrough after six years of being on the sidelines and a third party, the Liberals, trying to regain relevancy after dropping down to three seats in the legislature in the last election.

General elections and byelections can be different beasts, with byelections often suffering from lower turnout numbers, but if Manitoba’s political leaders can proclaim it as a portent of things to come, so can we.

Whichever party works harder between now and next year’s election will have the greatest success. But to do so, they’ll all have to work harder than they have been.

Give Manitobans something to hope for, a path to a better future. If not, the results in 2023 are going to be closer than either the NDP or PCs would like.